A statistical analysis of the population of Barbel in the River Teme

Abstract

The focus of this project is on the population of barbel (Barbus barbus) living in the River Teme, over a number of years with the objective of examining the fish population size specifically investigating any temporal trend in fish population numbers and, if found, with the further aim of examining any covariates that may be causing the trend. In order to answer these questions, two datasets were investigated and rigorously analysed in order to ascertain whether stocks of barbel are in decline and, if so, to further examine which covariates could be contributing to their depletion. A number of statistical methods were used to examine the datasets including descriptive statistics, correlation analyses and statistical modelling techniques. The statistical models included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression which, once fitted to the data were used to predict recorded Barbel numbers. The results suggest that the fish population is in decline.