Assessing future projections of Intense typhoon return period and intensity over Taiwan

Abstract

Typhoons are a leading natural cause of mass socioeconomic losses through floods, storm surges and high winds, and this is projected to worsen in a warmer climate. While the majority of literature is in agreement, there is little research into typhoon behaviour projections past the year 2100. TCWiSE – a statistical modelling tool, is used to simulate and spatially assess changes in intense (category 4+) typhoon return period and average intensity over the island of Taiwan in four different climate scenarios all with increasing intensity and frequency values. In comparison to the present-day scenario, the future scenarios recorded a +12.0%, +21.2% and +21.4% increase in average intensity, and a –10.2%, –51.4% and –45.9% median reduction in return period, indicating Taiwan will face typhoons that are more frequent and powerful relative to 2022. There is little variation observed in the intensity and return period values found between the two most extreme simulations, but a comparison between the two suggests there is a marked change in typhoon track towards Taiwan causing higher dissipation rates from more landfall events. Nevertheless, regardless of the future climate, all simulated scenarios look unfavourable for Taiwan unless rapid change is made to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to acceptable levels.